Notes & Quotes from #Stocktoberfest 2016

#Stocktoberfest 2016 is in the books. If you are a trader, investor, or fintech start-up founder, you couldn’t ask for a better venue or a more gracious host; and I challenge you to find  a more genuine group of finance professionals (and market enthusiasts)  than the @stocktwits community. It was an honor and a privilege to be included. I met smart people, heard stimulating ideas, and received personal advise from those that have taken all the lumps the market can deliver and stepped out of the ring winners. It was truly a great time!

Ok, without any further nostalgia, here are my notes & quotes from #Stocktoberfest 2016:

On Trends

  • Fashology is the combination of fashion and technology. It is the future. Look for ideas in this space. Some of today’s companies that have capitalized are $NKE, $UA, $LULU and $AAPL – Howard Lindzon 
  • In the future, everyone will have an appointment video service and a live video service. – Jon Steinberg CEO of Cheddar
  • If the herd is moving to passive investing (indexing) then there is no better time to be active – David AferiatTrade Ideas
  • eCommerce is a Trillion dollar opportunity. Retailers with the liquidity to invest in proportion to the opportunity and a team with the brains to pull it off will be the winners. – Jeff Macke
  • Look for “Entertainment Retail” as a future trend – Jeff Macke 
  • Cyber Security is ripe for mass consolidation. 1-3 players will dominate through acquisition. Two potential winners are $PANW and $CSCO – Villi Iltchev and Michael Porat 
  • Non financial transactions using blockchain are an emerging trend – Vinny Lingham
  • Supply chain of the driverless car space is where you want to be positioned in the future – Jack Mohr

What the Charts Say

  • Crude Oil is at one of the most important price levels in history. Inverse head and shoulders pattern developing. Price is at the neckline right now. Measured move could be 100% if it can break resistance. – Chris Kimble
  • May 2015 lows are important level for the S&P (and other indexes). If we break these lows, we need to reevaluate if we are still in a bull market – J.C. Parets
  • On the charts, I like $AAPL to $130, Google to $870, Intel above $38 to $50 (loves this one), Crude Oil going above $60, and if you need to buy Twitter -buy it above $17.50 – J.C. Parets
  • Latin America may be at a bottom and may rip, materials and industrial stocks could benefit – J.C. Parets

On the Macro

  • Modern Capitalist systems are inherently unstable – Mark Dow
  • The U.S. Economy is better positioned than any economy in the world right now – Jack Litle
  • 80% of bear markets occur with recessions – Urban Carmel
  • China has been on the verge of blowing up for 25 years – Urban Carmel

On Millennials

  • Millennials are looking for people that have a presence online, with a message that explains their investment thesis and why. They are looking for information on demand. – Josh Brown
  • Millennials have a loyalty to convenience and innovation rather than brand. – Rachel Fox
  • Millennials are not exposed to stocks and investing. No one makes market content for Millennials. No one is reaching them. – Rachel Fox
  • To reach Millennials, disrupt incnonvienence with technology – Rachel Fox

Common Misconceptions about the VIX – Russell Rhoads

  • VIX is a great market indicator (It’s not)
  • VIX and SPX always move in opposite directions (they don’t)
  • VIX average is a 20 handle (no it’s actually a 12)

Random Words of Wisdom

  • Tell the client what you are going to do and then do it – Josh Brown
  • We have examined all the indicators and price is the most reliable – Josh Brown
  • Cinemark over Netflix – Jeff Macke
  • You know to the penny how much you pay per month for your phone bill but you have no idea how much you pay per month for your 401k – Morgan Housel
  • Jeff Bezos wants Prime to be something that is irresponsible not to own – Morgan Housel
  • Internals of the market need to confirm what the indexes are doing – are the individual stocks making new 52 week lows? Then confirmation of a downtrend – J.C. Parets
  • It takes 100% commitment to trade successfully and the overwhelming majority of investors do not have the time necessary to beat the market. – Michael Batnick
  • Why interest rates are rising is what’s important to markets, not the mere fact that they are rising. – Charlie Bilello
  • There is power is saying, “I don’t know.” – Charlie Bilello
  • Quarter over quarter changes in buybacks do not correlate to overall market performance. – Danny Jassey
  • When the facts change, I change my mind. – Jack Mohr
  • Potential does not equal outperformance (Twitter) – Jack Mohr
  • When a company says, “we are not going to measure what we used to measure. We are now going to measure something else,” this is always a red flag. – Herb Greenberg
  • For some people, it’s not a company, it’s a stock – Josh Brown
  • Mother of all uncorrelated trades is $BABA because it’s not in the S&P and if you are getting measured against the S&P you need uncorrelated trades – Josh Brown
  • I am shocked everyday but just how hard everything in life is – Jon Steinberg 

On Stock Twits – Ian Rosen CEO 

  • 20 million unique monthly visits
  • Average time a user spends on StockTwits = 51 minutes. The same as Facebook and dwarfing other social platforms
  • Members share 5,000 charts per day
  • What’s coming in the future: Building a NewsWire that crawls the web to find news and tells you why a stock is trending, partnering with Chart IQ to bring advanced charting capabilities to Stock Twits, and creating a ST++premium product for the most engaged members on the platform.

These notes and quotes don’t even touch on the great start-up presentations. More on those in later posts.

Happy Trading!

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